Iran’s strategy in the war against the United States was becoming clear on Saturday: inflict maximum economic pain on US allies and the global economy in order to force Washington to the negotiating table. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 had already pushed oil prices toward $120 per barrel. Ballistic missile strikes on Fujairah in the UAE threatened the region’s ship-refuelling infrastructure. Threats against any Gulf energy facility with American ties added further uncertainty to markets already rattled by weeks of conflict.
Analysts at the International Crisis Group described Iran’s approach as a three-part strategy: survive the bombing, maintain enough military capacity to keep fighting, and prolong the conflict until a settlement could be reached on Iranian terms. Ali Vaez, the group’s Iran expert, described Tehran as effectively “taking the global economy hostage” as a means of pressuring Trump to halt the offensive. Despite losing senior figures in Israeli strikes, the Iranian regime appeared structurally intact and capable of sustaining the strategy.
The United States continued to respond with airpower. US warplanes struck Kharg Island on Saturday for the second consecutive day. President Trump said in public statements the island had been effectively demolished and suggested more strikes were possible. He called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, in what analysts described as the first public acknowledgment that the US might not be able to unilaterally reopen the waterway. The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional marines were heading to the region to bolster options.
Iran did not slow its military operations. Missiles struck the UAE’s Fujairah port, forcing a halt to oil-loading. Iranian commanders threatened any Gulf energy facility with American connections. Israel conducted dozens of raids inside Iran, killing at least 15 people in Isfahan. Iran fired rockets at Israel in return. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s leaders were hiding underground and wounded. Iranian officials confirmed Khamenei’s injury but called it minor. The multi-front nature of the conflict showed no signs of contracting.
The economic and human costs of the war were becoming staggering. More than 1,400 Iranians had been killed, with Lebanon adding 800 more dead and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Thirteen Israelis and roughly 20 Gulf residents had also died. Six US troops died in an aircraft crash in Iraq. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck, and Americans were ordered to leave. Oil prices were rising fast, and analysts warned the global economy was approaching a breaking point that could trigger recessions in the most vulnerable nations.
