Crude Sector Experiences Worst Performance Since COVID

The world’s oil markets have suffered their worst annual performance since the coronavirus pandemic disrupted global commerce, with prices dropping approximately 20% throughout 2025. The energy sector confronts an unprecedented situation: three straight years of price declines, creating mounting financial pressure across producing nations and energy companies worldwide.
Despite ongoing geopolitical instability in several major oil-producing regions, prices have continued falling due to severe fundamental oversupply. Producers are extracting crude at rates substantially exceeding what global economic activity requires, creating what market observers characterize as cartoonish levels of excess supply. This glut overwhelms typical market dynamics that normally provide price support.
Diplomatic developments contributed to crude falling below $60 per barrel last month for the first time in nearly five years, as political leaders made progress toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Markets worry that removing western sanctions on Russian energy exports would inject massive additional supplies into an already overwhelmed system, potentially accelerating the downward price spiral.
The year concluded with Brent crude at $60.85 per barrel, down markedly from approximately $74 at the end of 2024. American oil benchmarks followed parallel patterns, declining 20% to $57.42. The OPEC cartel typically attempts to manage member production to keep prices high enough for healthy revenues without becoming so elevated that consumers switch to low-carbon alternatives, but this strategy has failed against current market realities.
Economic weakness across major economies and trade tensions affecting China have dampened global demand significantly. International energy officials estimate supplies will exceed consumption by roughly 3.8 million barrels per day this year, even after OPEC deferred production increases. Major financial institutions predict further weakness ahead, with some projecting prices could fall to $55 per barrel by spring or decline into the $50s during 2026. Lower fuel prices could benefit struggling families and help cool inflation, though retailers face pressure to pass savings to customers more quickly, and household energy bills are rising slightly despite the crude price crash.