The situation in Ukraine is locked in a vicious cycle: there can be no Western security force without a peace deal, but there is no peace deal in sight, and now Vladimir Putin is threatening war if a force is deployed. His warning that any troops would be “legitimate targets” has tightened this diplomatic knot.
The idea of a security force, promoted by France and 26 other nations, was intended to provide a pathway to a stable, postwar Ukraine. However, it is contingent on the war ending, a prospect that seems increasingly distant.
Putin’s threat has made the cycle even more unbreakable. It has spooked potential troop-contributing nations like Germany, making the formation of such a force even less likely. This, in turn, may reduce the incentive for Russia to ever agree to a peace deal, as it faces no prospect of a subsequent international military presence.
The result is a dangerous stalemate. Diplomacy is frozen, and the military and rhetorical escalation continues. Putin’s dismissal of a potential agreement and Zelenskyy’s mistrust of Moscow’s intentions ensure that this vicious cycle will not be broken anytime soon.
Picture Credit: www.heute.at
